Month: August 2014

Two sell-side strategists are waiting on a country road by a tree. What are they waiting for? Yield curve inversion. Why are they waiting for it? They explain: “it has a flawless track record, predicting every U.S. recession in the past fifty years.” As recessions tend to be bad for the stock market, and the […]

Seven Years Later: What Does the Fed Know?

  • Fed
  • Charlie Bilello

“This is about Bernanke. He has to be on that [Bear Stearns] call. Bernanke needs to open the discount window, that’s how bad things are out there. Bernanke needs to focus on this. Alan Greenspan told everyone to take a teaser rate and then raised the rate seventeen times. And Bernanke is being an academic. […]

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No Bubble, No Problems?

There’s a recurring theme emanating from nearly every permanently bullish pundit right now. I’m sure you’ve heard it. It goes something like this: “I was around in 1999-2000. You have no idea how crazy it was back then. We are nowhere near that level of mania today. We therefore have much, much further to go.” […]

Buy the Dip? What Dip?

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

The “buy the dip” chatter seems to start earlier and earlier each time there is a minor pullback in the market. A few weeks back, I outlined a number of red flags that suggested market weakness was likely to follow. Following that writing, the S&P 500 would start to decline, and was down a little […]

When Reaching for Yield Goes Wrong

“The market-formerly-known-as-high-yield’s average yield  fell to 4.9% as of the close of the day Monday, according to a benchmark Barclays U.S. high-yield index, while the equivalent Bank of America Merrill Lynch index fell to 4.94%, both new all-time lows.” – Barrons, June 17, 2014 “There is some evidence of reach for yield behavior.” – Janet […]