Blog

Month: March 2015

Hunting for Growth

In the past few months, we learned that 4th quarter S&P 500 earnings declined 14%, their worst year-over-year decline of the expansion. With growth harder to come by, investors have been actively bidding up growth names wherever they can find them. The Russell 1000 Growth Index (IWF) has outperformed the Russell 1000 Value Index (IWD) […]

The Currency Hedging Boom

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

The most dominant theme thus far in 2015 has been the global currency war, where central banks are fighting one another with new easing measures on a daily basis to debase their currencies. By my count, there have already been at least 28 easy money announcements in 2015. The direct by-product of this race to debase […]

The Great Appeasement and the Burden of Proof

After six years and two months of 0% interest rates with three rounds of quantitative easing (QE) in between, the Federal Reserve chose to finally remove the word “patient” from their official statement. Hawkish at last! Not so fast. I once heard that you should never underestimate the dovishness of Janet Yellen and she delivered on […]

The Black Swan in Plain Sight: King Dollar

Nassim Taleb has written about three key attributes used to identify a Black Swan: “First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us […]

Like Clockwork, More Easing

From South Korea to Sweden, Poland to Pakistan, Albania to Australia: everyone is easing. By my count, there have now been at least 25 Central Bank easing announcements in 2015. This amounts to roughly one announcement every other trading day this year. Like clockwork, every time we have seen a weak data point in the U.S. (which […]