Blog

Month: October 2015

The Earnings Enigma

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

Over half of companies in the S&P 500 have now reported earnings and we’re observing a familiar theme. For the fourth consecutive quarter, earnings have declined on a year-over-basis. On the revenue front, growth has turned negative for the third consecutive quarter. The Enigma If earnings and revenues are supposed to drive stock prices, how […]

King Dollar Abdicates the Throne

Back in March, I wrote of the “Black Swan in Plain Sight” that was King Dollar: “Based on Taleb’s criteria, it would seem that the Dollar’s advance over the past nine months would qualify as a Black Swan event. If King Dollar is indeed a Black Swan, though, why haven’t we seen reverberations in the […]

  • Posted in Economy, Markets
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Blood and Oil

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

The commodities market moves much faster than television networks. The producers of the new ABC show “Blood & Oil” are learning this the hard way. The series follows the story of a young couple who moves to North Dakota after the biggest oil discovery in American history. The show was written a few years ago […]

  • Posted in Markets
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May You Live in Volatile Times

Volatility of volatility is making history. Today, the VIX Index, also known as the Volatility Index, declined for the 10th consecutive trading day. This ties the all-time record for consecutive down days set back in May 2005 and October 2009. Over the past 10 trading days, the VIX Index has fallen over 41% (from 27.6 […]

Fear is Good

  • Sentiment
  • Charlie Bilello

“Greed, for lack of a better word, is good” – Gordon Gekko, Wall Street (1987) With all due respect to Gordon Gekko, when it comes to investing it is not greed but fear that is good. Fear creates opportunity and a favorable balance between risk and reward. Greed inevitably leads to poor decision making and […]