Blog

Month: January 2016

Sentiment and the Holy Grail

Sentiment hit a number of bearish extremes last week and I tweeted out a few charts illustrating this shift in the mood of market participants. The most striking of these was the percentage of Bulls in the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) poll dropping down to 17.9%, below the extreme low it reached in […]

Why You Own Bonds

In July 2015 I wrote about an unusual occurrence in markets: the fear of bonds seemed to be higher than the fear of stocks. In the piece, I argued why this fear was irrational despite the likely low returns from a buy-and-hold bond portfolio over the coming years. Given the high valuations of U.S. equities and […]

  • Posted in Bonds, Markets
  • Comments Off on Why You Own Bonds

“There is a thin line that separates laughter and pain, comedy and tragedy, humor and hurt.” – Erma Bombeck In times like this, where everyone seems to panic out of not just asset classes, but also strategies, introspection is a worthwhile endeavor.  After having been on the road for nearly two years now and presenting […]

“Don’t wait until you’re in a crisis to come up with a crisis plan.” – Phil McGraw Following a second nasty week for stocks, the media is now beginning to ask if we are on the verge of a recession.  Small-cap stocks have entered “bear” territory after a 20+% drop off the highs.  Recession or […]

“You’ve got to kick fear to the side, because the payoff is huge.” – Mariska Hargitay We all know that the lottery is random, and that the odds are one in 292 million.  Maybe you’ll get lucky and win it all, or maybe you’ll split the payout because multiple people luckily choose the same winning […]

  • Posted in Contrary Opinion
  • Comments Off on What Powerball, Stocks, and Contrarianism Have in Common