Month: August 2016

“Every painting I do is related to the last one: it may be a continuation of a previous painting or it may be a reaction against it.”—William Scott Over the last few weeks, I’ve been making the case that inter-market trends suggest we are in the midst of a “melt-up” driven by exactly the right […]

Dear Fed, Please STFU

*Beta Rotation Index, +9.04% Year to Date thru 8/26/2016, remains in offense mode (click here for why this matters) *Pension Partners Tactical Exposure Model +12.93% Year to Date thru 8/26/2016 Dear Fed, We have come to a point in time where you are causing more harm than good.  For decades, your role as not only […]

Pundit or Professional?

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

Are you a Pundit or a Professional? *** The Pundit spends their days making subjective predictions. The Professional spends their days making objective assessments. *** The Pundit seeks self-promotion. The Professional seeks self-improvement. *** The Pundit exudes hubris. The Professional exudes humility. *** The Pundit is forever calling for the next big melt-up or crash. […]

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What Happens When Financials Lag?

What happens in markets when Financials are the worst performing sector? Entering 2016, nothing particularly good. We saw this in 1990, 2007, 2008, and 2011. 1990 marked the start of the 1990-91 recession. 2007 marked the start of the 2007-09 recession. 2008 was the worst year in markets since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 […]

Big Winners and Big Drawdowns

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet… -All among the largest and most revered companies in the world. -All have returned unfathomable amounts to their shareholders. -All have experienced periods of tremendous adversity with large drawdowns. When thinking about big winners in the stock market, adversity and large drawdowns probably aren’t the first words that come to mind. […]