Month: January 2017

Bitcoin and the Greater Fool

“It is the peculiar quality of a fool to perceive the faults of others and to forget his own.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero Would you pay $110 for something that’s only worth $85.73? What if you owned something worth $85.73 and you could sell it for $110?  Would you hold on to it? These probably […]

Valuation and Volatility

U.S. stock valuations are rising. One way to measure that is the CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over a ten year period. This ratio for the S&P 500 hit 28.7 this week, which is in the 94th percentile going back to 1928. The only periods in history with a higher CAPE ratio were July through […]

Fast Content vs. Good Content

  • Investing
  • Charlie Bilello

Fast content is timely. Good content is timeless. Fast content seeks clicks. Good content seeks conversation. Fast content induces fear and greed. Good content helps you overcome these emotions. Fast content is self-promotional. Good content is self-aware. Fast content assigns blame. Good content takes ownership. Fast content is fleeting. Good content is cumulative. Fast content […]

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Do commodities enhance a typical 60/40 (stock/bond) portfolio? That depends on a) who you ask, b) when you ask them, c) how you define “enhance,” and d) how you define “commodities.” In 2005, Gorton and Rouwenhorst found that an equally-weighted index of commodity futures (from July 1959 to December 2004) had historically produced the “same […]

Factors, Fortitude, and Faith

“Fortitude is the guard and support of the other virtues.” – John Locke Factors, factors, factors. Everyone seems to love factors these days. Why? Because they have exhibited high returns in the past and investors love high returns. But just because factors have outperformed over long periods of time in the past doesn’t mean they […]