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Month: April 2017

It’s only Tuesday, but what a week it’s been thus far in the equity markets… Volatility Crashes On Monday we saw the 4th largest decline in history for the Volatility Index (VIX), a 25.9% drop. This crash in volatility may sound familiar as #7 (post-election, 11/9/16) and #11 (post-Brexit. 6/28/16) also occurred within the last year. […]

  • Posted in Markets, Volatility
  • Comments Off on Volatility Crashes, New Tech Highs, and 2000 vs. 2017

With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the number 1 rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the world has lost money at one time or another. Buffett himself lost close to 50% on two […]

False Narratives

A few important things I’ve learned over the years: 1) The prevailing narrative always follows price. 2) Prices can be very wrong at times (the market is NOT always right). 3) When prices are wrong, narratives become nonsense. 4) Chasing nonsense (false narratives) is not an effective investing strategy. Just before midnight on election night last November, […]

What is the “market portfolio?” When I first learned of the concept in business school it seemed so simple. You just combine all of the assets in the world and hold them in proportion to their market values. Why? Because academic theory says that’s the most efficient thing you can do, and trying to beat […]