Author: Charlie Bilello

Lions and Tigers and Yield Curve Inversions

There are few things investors fear more than an inverted yield curve. Why? 2 reasons… The last 9 recessions in the U.S. were all preceded by an inverted curve (1-yr yield higher than 10-yr yield). Data Sources for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg. 2. Weaker stock market returns tend to follow flat/inverted curves. Note: yield curve range is […]

  • Posted in Bonds, Economy
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The Great Paradox in Markets

Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally. On December 24, the S&P 500 closed at 2,351, down 14.8% on the month and 20% from its all-time high. Notably, the NYSE McCllellan Oscillator […]

2018: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2018… I. All Good Things… …must come to an end. After 9 straight years of gains, the S&P 500 finished down 4.4% in 2018, its first down year since 2008. The record run from 2009-2017 thus ends in a tie with 1991-1999 for the […]

The Long Pause

  • Fed, Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25% – 2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time. Over the past 3 years, at every FOMC meeting where the market […]

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Bear Markets and Recessions

It’s official: the Bear Market of 2018. Like many of the previous Bears, it’s been an elevator down, with a 20% decline in just 3 months. The question many are asking: is this decline just a decline or is it signaling an oncoming recession? Looking back at history, the answer is far from clear. This […]