Category: Bonds

When High Yield Becomes Low Yield

In December 2008, as the “world was ending,” European junk bonds hit a record high yield of 25.97%. Forecasts of financial Armageddon were widespread, and few could envision a scenario in which subordinated bondholders would receive anything but pain. But the world did not end in December 2008. And over next five years, European junk […]

With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the number 1 rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the world has lost money at one time or another. Buffett himself lost close to 50% on two […]

The most interesting thing in markets today is the growing divergence in short-term interest rates between the U.S. and the rest of the developed world. While Japan and most of Europe have negative 2-year yields, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has moved all the way up to 1.38%, its highest level since 2009. At 0.71%, […]

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Are Long Bonds Riskier Than Stocks?

It is one thing to know a truth; it is quite another to witness that truth firsthand. Most investors know that bond prices move inversely to interest rates and that the longer the duration of the bond, the higher the sensitivity to interest rates. But witnessing that firsthand since last July has been jarring to […]

Fed Hikes and Stock Market Returns

It’s coming. Market participants are expecting the third Fed rate hike since December 2015 at next week’s FOMC meeting. This is a move up in expectations from the start the year when market participants were saying no hike would occur until June. The Fed Funds Effective Rate is now at its highest level since 2008, […]