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Category: Commodities

At the end of the first quarter, Crude Oil was up 7.5% while Energy stocks were down 6.1%. How unusual is such a divergence? Let’s take a look… Note: References to Energy/Energy Stocks/Energy Sector throughout this post are referring to the S&P 500 Energy Sector ETF (XLE), total return data from Stockcharts.com.  Since the inception of […]

Every major developed country central bank in the world is maintaining negative real interest rates in what is now the 9th year of a global economic expansion. Source Data: Investing.com and Pension Partners, as of February 1, 2018. Real interest rates = nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate (CPI = consumer price index). Why […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Fed, Inflation
  • Comments Off on Crude Oil, Inflation Expectations, and the End of Easy Money

2017: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2017… I. The Year Volatility Died There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “the market has a tendency to move in a fashion that inflicts the most pain on the most participants.” After the election in November 2016, the most prominent market […]

Gold Miner Myths

“Gold Miners are a leveraged play on Gold” “Gold Miners are a good hedge against the S&P 500” There are few sectors in the market that generate as much attention, emotion, and misinformation as the Gold Miners. You’ll often hear some version of the two quotes above, stated as fact. Let’s evaluate the data to […]

Few assets in markets generate as much love and hate as Silver. There’s not a day that goes by without a multitude of extreme predictions on where the metallic element is going. After Silver has had a sharp rally or sell-off, these predictions only intensify as emotions run wild. We are in one of those […]