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Category: Commodities

Does the S&P Need Higher Oil?

Crude Oil is crashing again, down 36% from its high in early October. With the S&P 500 moving lower in tandem during October (11% correction), part of the blame was placed on lower Oil prices. If only Oil prices had not collapsed, some pundits argued, stocks would be hitting new highs. How accurate is this […]

Copper is said hold a PhD in economics, its price movements containing key information about the U.S. stock market and the economy. With the sharp decline in the metal of late (52-week low, down 17% YTD), many are suggesting this is a negative omen. Does the historical record confirm this assertion? Let’s take a look. […]

At the end of the first quarter, Crude Oil was up 7.5% while Energy stocks were down 6.1%. How unusual is such a divergence? Let’s take a look… Note: References to Energy/Energy Stocks/Energy Sector throughout this post are referring to the S&P 500 Energy Sector ETF (XLE), total return data from Stockcharts.com.  Since the inception of […]

Every major developed country central bank in the world is maintaining negative real interest rates in what is now the 9th year of a global economic expansion. Source Data: Investing.com and Pension Partners, as of February 1, 2018. Real interest rates = nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate (CPI = consumer price index). Why […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Fed, Inflation
  • Comments Off on Crude Oil, Inflation Expectations, and the End of Easy Money

2017: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2017… I. The Year Volatility Died There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “the market has a tendency to move in a fashion that inflicts the most pain on the most participants.” After the election in November 2016, the most prominent market […]