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Category: Economy

According to the CBOE SKEW Index, the risk of a stock market crash has never been higher. What exactly does that mean? The SKEW Index is calculated based on S&P 500 options, measuring the perceived tail risk in S&P 500 returns over the next 30 days. The higher the SKEW Index, the higher the implied […]

We’ve come a long way, baby. In October 2009, the U.S. Unemployment Rate stood at 10%, the highest level since the deep recession in the early 1980’s. Since then, it has moved all the way down to 4.7%. Payrolls have now expanded for 77 consecutive months, by far the longest streak in history. With economic […]

Demographics and Destiny

  • Economy
  • Charlie Bilello

“It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves.” – William Shakespeare Can you imagine a world in which population growth is flat? How about negative? Fifty years ago such questions would have been dismissed as absurd. At the time, global population growth was increasing at a rate of 2.1% per […]

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Going back to 1901, Democratic presidents have averaged a 12.4% annualized return (S&P 500, Total Return) during their time in office versus only 6.9% for Republicans. While presidents are often credited or blamed for stock market performance, the truth is that their policies (good or bad) have little to nothing to do with short-term stock […]

The Deflation Myth

Deflation, Deflation, Deflation. Central bankers around the world can’t seem to get enough of the D word. Deflation is rampant and needs to be purged, they say, justifying rate cuts and even negative interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve bucked the trend last December in raising rates to a paltry 25 bps (its first hike […]