Category: Economy

Lions and Tigers and Yield Curve Inversions

There are few things investors fear more than an inverted yield curve. Why? 2 reasons… The last 9 recessions in the U.S. were all preceded by an inverted curve (1-yr yield higher than 10-yr yield). Data Sources for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg. 2. Weaker stock market returns tend to follow flat/inverted curves. Note: yield curve range is […]

  • Posted in Bonds, Economy
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In markets, we often hear of these precise levels, beyond which everything is said to unravel.  The so-called “breaking point.” Their allure is undeniable. If such a point existed, one could fully prepare for it in advance, exiting unscathed before the stampede of the masses. Over the past few years, the most popular “breaking points” have […]

US manufacturing is booming. In a report released this week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 61.3, the second-highest level in the last 30 years. Data Source for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because increased manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This […]

US Consumers are feeling pretty confident these days. A survey just released by the conference board showed the highest reading since October 2000. At a level of 133.4, consumers are more confident today than 94% of historical readings going back to 1967. Data Source for all charts/tables herein: Conference Board, Bloomberg If you asked the […]

  • Posted in Economy, Equities, Myths
  • Comments Off on Is a Confident Consumer Good for the Stock Market?

The U.S. Unemployment Rate has moved down to 3.9%, its lowest level since December 2000. If you ask the average person on the street what that means for the stock market, they would likely say it’s a bullish sign. What does it actually mean? Let’s take a look… Data Source for all charts/tables herein: FRED, […]