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Category: Economy

Demographics and Destiny

  • Economy
  • Charlie Bilello

“It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves.” – William Shakespeare Can you imagine a world in which population growth is flat? How about negative? Fifty years ago such questions would have been dismissed as absurd. At the time, global population growth was increasing at a rate of 2.1% per […]

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Going back to 1901, Democratic presidents have averaged a 12.4% annualized return (S&P 500, Total Return) during their time in office versus only 6.9% for Republicans. While presidents are often credited or blamed for stock market performance, the truth is that their policies (good or bad) have little to nothing to do with short-term stock […]

The Deflation Myth

Deflation, Deflation, Deflation. Central bankers around the world can’t seem to get enough of the D word. Deflation is rampant and needs to be purged, they say, justifying rate cuts and even negative interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve bucked the trend last December in raising rates to a paltry 25 bps (its first hike […]

Recession Odds and Soothsayers

“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.” – Peter Lynch With the financial markets in “turmoil” in early 2016, the most common question asked of economic forecasters: “is the U.S. economy heading into another recession?” […]

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2015: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2015. I. The Great Divergence After seven years of 0%, the Federal Reserve at long last increased interest rates by 0.25% in December. Remarkably, they did so against a backdrop of easing by virtually every other major global central bank. Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, […]