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Category: Economy

When Mean Reversion Fails

Are equities overvalued? Is the economic expansion long in the tooth? — In attempting to answer these questions, we often look to averages: -What is the average valuation? -What is the average length of an expansion? We then take the present environment and compare that to the average past to make definitive statements about the […]

According to the CBOE SKEW Index, the risk of a stock market crash has never been higher. What exactly does that mean? The SKEW Index is calculated based on S&P 500 options, measuring the perceived tail risk in S&P 500 returns over the next 30 days. The higher the SKEW Index, the higher the implied […]

We’ve come a long way, baby. In October 2009, the U.S. Unemployment Rate stood at 10%, the highest level since the deep recession in the early 1980’s. Since then, it has moved all the way down to 4.7%. Payrolls have now expanded for 77 consecutive months, by far the longest streak in history. With economic […]

Demographics and Destiny

  • Economy
  • Charlie Bilello

“It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves.” – William Shakespeare Can you imagine a world in which population growth is flat? How about negative? Fifty years ago such questions would have been dismissed as absurd. At the time, global population growth was increasing at a rate of 2.1% per […]

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Going back to 1901, Democratic presidents have averaged a 12.4% annualized return (S&P 500, Total Return) during their time in office versus only 6.9% for Republicans. While presidents are often credited or blamed for stock market performance, the truth is that their policies (good or bad) have little to nothing to do with short-term stock […]