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Category: Economy

US manufacturing is booming. In a report released this week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 61.3, the second-highest level in the last 30 years. Data Source for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because increased manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This […]

US Consumers are feeling pretty confident these days. A survey just released by the conference board showed the highest reading since October 2000. At a level of 133.4, consumers are more confident today than 94% of historical readings going back to 1967. Data Source for all charts/tables herein: Conference Board, Bloomberg If you asked the […]

  • Posted in Economy, Equities, Myths
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The U.S. Unemployment Rate has moved down to 3.9%, its lowest level since December 2000. If you ask the average person on the street what that means for the stock market, they would likely say it’s a bullish sign. What does it actually mean? Let’s take a look… Data Source for all charts/tables herein: FRED, […]

Interest rates are on the rise, at their highest levels in over 4 years. What is that telling us, if anything, about growth and inflation? Let’s take a look… While you often hear commentators suggesting there is a strong relationship between bond yields and the real economy, the evidence seems to be lacking. Since 1930, […]

  • Posted in Bonds, Economy, Inflation
  • Comments Off on What Is the Relationship Between Interest Rates, Growth and Inflation?

The Stock Market Is Not the Economy

U.S. economic growth in the 1st quarter came in at 2.3%, right in line with the average level of the expansion that began in June 2009. As you can see in the chart below, this has been the slowest growth expansion in history. Data Sources for all charts/tables herein: NBER, FRED, Bloomberg, NYU.EDU Has that […]