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Category: Equities

Irrational Optimism

In the months following the election, we saw optimism surge higher in a number of prominent indicators… Homebuilder sentiment hit an 11-year high. Small Business optimism hit a 12-year high. Consumer confidence hit a 13-year high. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey hit a 33-year high. The thinking was as follows: a new era of higher economic […]

Innovate or Die

Back in January 2007, Netflix announced a bold plan to bring internet video to television sets. At the time, few believed they would be successful, but such skepticism was nothing new. The “death” of Netflix was predicted first in late 2002, not long after its IPO. Wal-Mart was entering the DVD-by-mail business, and who could […]

Fast Food, Slow Thinking

Investing: “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” – Charlie Munger Over the past 2 years, McDonald’s stock is up over 70% while Chipotle’s is down 38%. Was this expected to happen? Not exactly. In July 2015, Chipotle’s stock had advanced 70% over the prior 2 years while McDonald’s […]

U.S. National Debt continues to rise and many investors are afraid. This fear is nothing new; it has been around for decades. Is it rational for equity investors to fear rising debt levels? Let’s take a look. First, some background. Since 1966, the U.S. National Debt has risen in each and every calendar year. Through […]

Will There Ever Be Another Correction?

Will there ever be another correction? An absurd question to be sure, but one I’m fielding with increasing frequency these days. Why? It’s been more than a year since the S&P 500 declined as much as 5% from a prior high. That’s quite a long time, now the 5th longest period without a correction in […]

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