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Category: Fed

Is Cash No Longer Trash?

Short-term bond yields (1-month through 3-years) are hitting their highest levels in over 9 years. Why? The market (Fed Funds Futures) is expecting the Federal Reserve to hike rates 3 more times in 2018: a 25 basis point move in March, a 25 basis point move in June, and a 25 basis point move in […]

Still Easy After All These Years

  • Fed
  • Charlie Bilello

Let’s pretend you were living in a bunker since February 2009 with no access to the outside world. You come out of the bunker in February 2018 and are presented with the following facts: 1) The U.S. economic expansion is now eight and a half years long, the 3rd longest in history at 102 months […]

  • Posted in Fed
  • Comments Off on Still Easy After All These Years

Every major developed country central bank in the world is maintaining negative real interest rates in what is now the 9th year of a global economic expansion. Source Data: Investing.com and Pension Partners, as of February 1, 2018. Real interest rates = nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate (CPI = consumer price index). Why […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Fed, Inflation
  • Comments Off on Crude Oil, Inflation Expectations, and the End of Easy Money

2017: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2017… I. The Year Volatility Died There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “the market has a tendency to move in a fashion that inflicts the most pain on the most participants.” After the election in November 2016, the most prominent market […]

The Uncertainty Principle in Markets

As an investor, what do you prefer: certainty or uncertainty? Certainty, of course. We all do. When things seem certain, the future looks bright and we embrace risk taking. When things seem uncertain, it’s hard to imagine things ever getting better, and we shun risk at all costs. But is there really such a thing […]