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Category: Fed

Will the Fed Get to 3% before the Cycle Turns?

  • Fed
  • Charlie Bilello

The Federal Reserve is currently forecasting a “longer-term” Fed Funds Rate of 3.0%. Will they get there before the end of the current expansion? Let’s take look… Back in December 2008, the Fed cut rates down to a range of 0% to 0.25%, the lowest level in history. For 7 years they held rates at […]

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Storytelling Animals

“People think in stories, not in facts, not in numbers, not in statistics. We are a storytelling animal.” – Yuval Noah Harari, Masters in Business “All lies and jests, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.” – Paul Simon, The Boxer — In December 2015, the Federal Reserve was […]

We’re closing out the first quarter and Emerging Markets are leading equities higher, with the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) up 13.40% versus 4.95% for U.S. large caps (SPY) and 0.18% for U.S. small caps (IWM). After many years of lagging returns in Emerging Markets, this is a notable gap. The possible explanation? I wrote […]

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Are Equity Returns Dependent on Easy Money?

The Fed raised interest rates this week for the third time since December 2015. This has many investors concerned about the impact on the stock market. Monetary policy has been abnormally easy for years now while stock market returns have been strong, leading many to conclude that the opposite situation could be problematic. While that […]

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The most interesting thing in markets today is the growing divergence in short-term interest rates between the U.S. and the rest of the developed world. While Japan and most of Europe have negative 2-year yields, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has moved all the way up to 1.38%, its highest level since 2009. At 0.71%, […]

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