Category: Fed

Still Easy After All These Years

  • Fed
  • Charlie Bilello

Let’s pretend you were living in a bunker since February 2009 with no access to the outside world. You come out of the bunker in February 2018 and are presented with the following facts: 1) The U.S. economic expansion is now eight and a half years long, the 3rd longest in history at 102 months […]

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Every major developed country central bank in the world is maintaining negative real interest rates in what is now the 9th year of a global economic expansion. Source Data: and Pension Partners, as of February 1, 2018. Real interest rates = nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate (CPI = consumer price index). Why […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Fed, Inflation
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2017: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2017… I. The Year Volatility Died There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “the market has a tendency to move in a fashion that inflicts the most pain on the most participants.” After the election in November 2016, the most prominent market […]

The Uncertainty Principle in Markets

As an investor, what do you prefer: certainty or uncertainty? Certainty, of course. We all do. When things seem certain, the future looks bright and we embrace risk taking. When things seem uncertain, it’s hard to imagine things ever getting better, and we shun risk at all costs. But is there really such a thing […]

Will the Fed Get to 3% before the Cycle Turns?

  • Fed
  • Charlie Bilello

The Federal Reserve is currently forecasting a “longer-term” Fed Funds Rate of 3.0%. Will they get there before the end of the current expansion? Let’s take look… Back in December 2008, the Fed cut rates down to a range of 0% to 0.25%, the lowest level in history. For 7 years they held rates at […]

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