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Category: Gold

Stop Searching for the Holy Grail

  • Gold
  • Charlie Bilello

In a recent post, I came to the following conclusion: “the notion that simply ‘following the trend’ in Gold will lead to vast riches is a false one.” I made this statement after analyzing a simple trend following system (going back to 1975), using the 200-day moving average as a signal of when to get […]

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Are Trend Following and Gold a Perfect Match?

  • Gold
  • Charlie Bilello

Market participants are often heard saying things like “you can’t trade Gold on fundamentals.” With no cash flows to discount, Gold is a different animal than stocks or bonds. It is said to swing higher and lower due to changes in investor sentiment alone. Many a trader will advise you to simply follow the trend: […]

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Gold Miner Myths

“Gold Miners are a leveraged play on Gold” “Gold Miners are a good hedge against the S&P 500” There are few sectors in the market that generate as much attention, emotion, and misinformation as the Gold Miners. You’ll often hear some version of the two quotes above, stated as fact. Let’s evaluate the data to […]

What happens when an ETF gets too big for its index? This is not a hypothetical question. Last month it was reported that the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) had amassed $5.4 billion in assets, a level too large for its index. In order to avoid exceeding 20% ownership in a few of its holdings […]

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What Happens When Gold is Oversold?

“Don’t gain the world and lose your soul; wisdom is better than silver or gold.” – Bob Marley There is no asset in the world that generates as much love and hate as Gold. There is not a day that goes by without a multitude of extreme predictions on where the yellow metal is going. […]

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