Category: Historical Analogs

Anatomy of a Market Top

“If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break.” – Led Zeppelin Crashes get all the headlines, but the reality is that a breakdown in markets is more often a process than an event. It takes time to break the back of a strong uptrends as there are many buyers on the sidelines eager to […]

I know what you’re thinking. Is he really combining two different early 90’s movies into an article title? That’s pushing the limits of clickbait. Fair enough, but hear me out. It will hopefully make some sense by the end of this piece. In late May, I took you “Back in Time,” writing about the many […]

At the end of May I took you back in time to 2007, showing the many similarities between 2014 and 2007.  Since then, the S&P 500 has continued to march higher, leading many to question whether the parallel still exists.  They ask: how can it possibly look like 2007 if the market is hitting new […]

Back in Time

Are you telling me that you built a time machine… out of a DeLorean? Of course not. It’s 2014 and the environmentalists would go crazy. We built one out of a Tesla Model S and we’re headed back to… May 2007. The economy is humming along and we’re over five years into an expansion that […]

At this time last year, the S&P 500 was already up 9% on the year and was closely mirroring two other years which saw unrelenting advances: 1954 and 1995. The equity market would go on to maintain a high correlation with ’54 and ’95 throughout the year, closing out the year at new all-time highs. […]