Category: Investing


In October 2015, Crude Oil was in the midst of an epic crash, down more than 50% from its high in 2014. At $49, credit concerns were front and center, as spreads on Energy High Yield bonds exceeded 1000 basis points. The pundit talking points at the time were as follows: With Crude Oil under […]

With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the number 1 rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the world has lost money at one time or another. Buffett himself lost close to 50% on two […]

False Narratives

A few important things I’ve learned over the years: 1) The prevailing narrative always follows price. 2) Prices can be very wrong at times (the market is NOT always right). 3) When prices are wrong, narratives become nonsense. 4) Chasing nonsense (false narratives) is not an effective investing strategy. Just before midnight on election night last November, […]

What is the “market portfolio?” When I first learned of the concept in business school it seemed so simple. You just combine all of the assets in the world and hold them in proportion to their market values. Why? Because academic theory says that’s the most efficient thing you can do, and trying to beat […]

What’s More Important: Saving or Investing?

What matters more – your personal savings rate or your investing rate of return? Your instinct is probably to say the latter, as that is what gets far more attention. We are often thinking about how we can make a higher return; we rarely think about saving more. In reality, though, saving is far more […]

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