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Category: Markets

Inverted Yield Curves and Recessions

Any way you look at it, the US yield curve is flattening: The spread between 30-year and 10-year yields has moved down to 0.18%, the narrowest since July 2007. The spread between 10-year and 5-year yields has moved down to 0.14%, also the narrowest since July 2007. The spread between 10-year and 2-year yields has […]

What a difference 9 years makes. On March 9, 2009, the market capitalization of Apple, Google (now Alphabet), Amazon, and Microsoft stood at $74 billion, $92 billion, $26 billion, and $135 billion. Their combined market cap: $327 billion. Data Source for all charts/tables herein: YCharts. 9 years later these four companies would grow to become the […]

When Cash Is King

Cash is king. At least for the moment. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. In the first quarter of 2018, short-term Treasury bills finished higher while both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury bond declined. The greatest fear among many investors is that this trend will continue. Is this a rational fear? How often has […]

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At the end of the first quarter, Crude Oil was up 7.5% while Energy stocks were down 6.1%. How unusual is such a divergence? Let’s take a look… Note: References to Energy/Energy Stocks/Energy Sector throughout this post are referring to the S&P 500 Energy Sector ETF (XLE), total return data from Stockcharts.com.  Since the inception of […]

Is the Yen a Reliable Safe Haven?

After a perfect year in 2017 (S&P 500 up every single month), equity markets are struggling. The S&P 500 just finished down 2 months in a row (February, March) for the first time since early 2016. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is rising, leading all major currencies against the Dollar in 2018. Are these facts related? […]