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Category: Markets

This Is the End

This is the end. The end of accommodation. The end of easy money. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates last month for the 8th time, bringing the Effective Fed Funds Rate up to 2.18%, its highest level since April 2008. More importantly, the Fed Funds Rate now stands above U.S. core inflation (2.17%) for the […]

They say it’s the longest bull market ever. Certainly makes for a good headline, but what does “bull market” mean? And is determining its length of any value for investors? Let’s take a look… Defining the “Bull” There is no standard definition for “bull market.” If you ask 10 different market participants you could easily get […]

  • Posted in Equities, Markets
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“Lower interest rates justify a higher than average price-earnings valuation.” – Pundit You’ve heard the story before: Equity valuations are high… Interest rates are low…. Data sources for all charts/tables herein: Robert Shiller (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm) Ergo, high valuations are “justified” by lower interest rates. Why? Some argue that because stocks are the present value of future cash […]

Gold Bugs vs. Stock Market Bulls

Which is the better investment: Gold or Stocks? It’s a battle as old as markets. Gold Bugs and Stock Market Bulls are equally fervent about their investment of choice, often with complete disdain for the other side. The story (since the gold standard was completely abandoned in 1971) goes something like this… 1972-1980 Gold Return: […]

Records Are Made to Be Broken

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

Viewing the New York City skyline from afar last month, I noticed something strange. I could no longer name a number of the tallest buildings. The Empire State Building, the Chrysler Building, and the World Trade Center were readily identifiable. But a new crop of skyscrapers had emerged from the shadows, seemingly overnight. After doing some […]

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