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Category: Markets

We’re closing out the first quarter and Emerging Markets are leading equities higher, with the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) up 13.40% versus 4.95% for U.S. large caps (SPY) and 0.18% for U.S. small caps (IWM). After many years of lagging returns in Emerging Markets, this is a notable gap. The possible explanation? I wrote […]

  • Posted in Equities, Fed, Markets
  • Comments Off on An Emerging Divergence in Central Bank Policy

Where is the S&P 500 going to end the year? This is one of the most popular questions in financial media. Why? Because viewers are said to love nothing more than a prediction involving a precise level on a specific date. There are two ways to answer this kind of question… 1) The Prediction (based on […]

  • Posted in Equities, Markets
  • Comments Off on The Difference Between a Prediction and a Probability

We saw something this week in the Nasdaq Composite that we’ve never seen before. In the same trading day, the Nasdaq hit both an all-time high and a 1-month low. Such a pattern is referred to in the technical lexicon as a Bearish Engulfing or Outside Reversal day. The definition only requires the current day […]

  • Posted in Equities, Markets
  • Comments Off on Is the Bearish Engulfing Pattern Actually Bearish?

The most peaceful market in history ended on Tuesday as the S&P 500 suffered a 1% decline intraday. At 64 trading days, the streak was 30 trading days longer than the prior record set in 1995. The S&P 500 also finished down over 1% on the day, ending the longest streak since 1995 without a […]

According to the CBOE SKEW Index, the risk of a stock market crash has never been higher. What exactly does that mean? The SKEW Index is calculated based on S&P 500 options, measuring the perceived tail risk in S&P 500 returns over the next 30 days. The higher the SKEW Index, the higher the implied […]