Category: Research Papers

“Every painting I do is related to the last one: it may be a continuation of a previous painting or it may be a reaction against it.”—William Scott Over the last few weeks, I’ve been making the case that inter-market trends suggest we are in the midst of a “melt-up” driven by exactly the right […]

The Slope of False Hope

“Whether a stock or index is trading above or below its moving average means absolutely nothing. Focus instead on the slope of that average. That is what works in markets.” – Trading Folklore Strong opinions, strongly held. Without any basis in evidence or fact. Unfortunately, that’s how much the investment pundit industry operates, giving false […]

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it […]

Leverage for the Long Run

Since 1928, the highest source of real returns in any asset class by far has come from the stock market. This is true in spite of the Great Depression of 1929 through 1933 and in spite of the 13 recessions thereafter. Through wars, disasters and political turmoil, stocks have been the best vehicle to not […]

The greatest fear in the investment management industry is not what one might expect. It is not losing money but the fear of not making enough money when the market is moving relentlessly higher. This “fear of missing out” strikes terror into the heart of portfolio managers as clients will simply not tolerate it; it is […]