Category: Sentiment

What Happens When Others Are Greedy?

The stock market may be the only market in the world where buyers run away from sales. As prices fall, the news is bad, fear takes over, and investors are more inclined to sell than buy. As prices rises, the news is good, greed takes over, and investors are happy to buy. One of the more fascinating […]

“Every painting I do is related to the last one: it may be a continuation of a previous painting or it may be a reaction against it.”—William Scott Over the last few weeks, I’ve been making the case that inter-market trends suggest we are in the midst of a “melt-up” driven by exactly the right […]

Active Managers, as measured by NAAIM, have increased their exposure to U.S. equities to 96.5%. This is quite high, in the 98th percentile of historical readings dating back to July 2006. Many seem to be interpreting this development as a bearish signal, a contrary sentiment indicator. If active managers have a high exposure to equities, […]

Silver Linings Playbook

Last July, I wrote the following: “Collectively, these factors [negative earnings/sales growth, widening credit spreads, flattening yield curve, weakness in cyclicals, etc.] point to an equity market that is increasingly fragile and in the past one that was about to become much more volatile. The response from market participants today: “no one cares.” Volatility is low, […]

The Market is Always Right?

“The Market is always right.” One of the most popular sayings in markets and also one of the most dangerous for investors. Why? Because the “market” can be very, very wrong – often at the worst possible time. A few examples in history when we were told: “the Market is always right.” 1) Nikkei peak […]