Blog

Category: Sentiment

Irrational Optimism

In the months following the election, we saw optimism surge higher in a number of prominent indicators… Homebuilder sentiment hit an 11-year high. Small Business optimism hit a 12-year high. Consumer confidence hit a 13-year high. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey hit a 33-year high. The thinking was as follows: a new era of higher economic […]

This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under […]

What Happens When Others Are Greedy?

The stock market may be the only market in the world where buyers run away from sales. As prices fall, the news is bad, fear takes over, and investors are more inclined to sell than buy. As prices rises, the news is good, greed takes over, and investors are happy to buy. One of the more fascinating […]

“Every painting I do is related to the last one: it may be a continuation of a previous painting or it may be a reaction against it.”—William Scott Over the last few weeks, I’ve been making the case that inter-market trends suggest we are in the midst of a “melt-up” driven by exactly the right […]

Active Managers, as measured by NAAIM, have increased their exposure to U.S. equities to 96.5%. This is quite high, in the 98th percentile of historical readings dating back to July 2006. Many seem to be interpreting this development as a bearish signal, a contrary sentiment indicator. If active managers have a high exposure to equities, […]