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Category: Valuation

Valuations and Bear Markets

U.S. equity valuations are high. How high? In January, the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) ratio rose to 33.76. This is more than double the average historical CAPE Ratio since 1900. It is also higher than every period in history with the exception of the late 1990s on the way up (February 1998 onward) and early […]

When Mean Reversion Fails

Are equities overvalued? Is the economic expansion long in the tooth? — In attempting to answer these questions, we often look to averages: -What is the average valuation? -What is the average length of an expansion? We then take the present environment and compare that to the average past to make definitive statements about the […]

Is This 1929 or 1997?

The CAPE Ratio or “Shiller PE” just crossed above 30. In layman’s terms, what does that mean? Stock valuations in the U.S. are high. How high? Going back to 1871, the only periods in history with a CAPE above 30 were as follows (data from Robert Shiller): August to September 1929 June 1997 to March […]

We’ve come a long way, baby. In October 2009, the U.S. Unemployment Rate stood at 10%, the highest level since the deep recession in the early 1980’s. Since then, it has moved all the way down to 4.7%. Payrolls have now expanded for 77 consecutive months, by far the longest streak in history. With economic […]

Valuation and Volatility

U.S. stock valuations are rising. One way to measure that is the CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over a ten year period. This ratio for the S&P 500 hit 28.7 this week, which is in the 94th percentile going back to 1928. The only periods in history with a higher CAPE ratio were July through […]