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Category: Valuation

Valuation and Volatility

U.S. stock valuations are rising. One way to measure that is the CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over a ten year period. This ratio for the S&P 500 hit 28.7 this week, which is in the 94th percentile going back to 1928. The only periods in history with a higher CAPE ratio were July through […]

“Stocks are undervalued.” “Stocks are overvalued.” These are two of the most common sayings on financial TV, trumpeted by bullish and bearish pundits on a daily basis. What value do they provide to the average investor? At best, none at all, and at worst they may lead some to take deleterious action in their portfolio. […]

“You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger.” – Buddha US stocks just had their worst start to a year in history last week going all the way back to 1928.  The bears have come roaring back.  As investors and traders frantically deal with clients and their own […]

The Bull Market turns six this week and what an incredible six years it has been. From the depths of despair in March 2009, the S&P 500 has more than tripled in one of the greatest six year bull market runs in history. At an annualized return of over 23%, only 1981-1987 and 1994-2000 saw […]

No Bubble, No Problems?

There’s a recurring theme emanating from nearly every permanently bullish pundit right now. I’m sure you’ve heard it. It goes something like this: “I was around in 1999-2000. You have no idea how crazy it was back then. We are nowhere near that level of mania today. We therefore have much, much further to go.” […]