Category: Valuation

We’ve come a long way, baby. In October 2009, the U.S. Unemployment Rate stood at 10%, the highest level since the deep recession in the early 1980’s. Since then, it has moved all the way down to 4.7%. Payrolls have now expanded for 77 consecutive months, by far the longest streak in history. With economic […]

Valuation and Volatility

U.S. stock valuations are rising. One way to measure that is the CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over a ten year period. This ratio for the S&P 500 hit 28.7 this week, which is in the 94th percentile going back to 1928. The only periods in history with a higher CAPE ratio were July through […]

“Stocks are undervalued.” “Stocks are overvalued.” These are two of the most common sayings on financial TV, trumpeted by bullish and bearish pundits on a daily basis. What value do they provide to the average investor? At best, none at all, and at worst they may lead some to take deleterious action in their portfolio. […]

“You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger.” – Buddha US stocks just had their worst start to a year in history last week going all the way back to 1928.  The bears have come roaring back.  As investors and traders frantically deal with clients and their own […]

The Bull Market turns six this week and what an incredible six years it has been. From the depths of despair in March 2009, the S&P 500 has more than tripled in one of the greatest six year bull market runs in history. At an annualized return of over 23%, only 1981-1987 and 1994-2000 saw […]