Factors, Fortitude, and Faith

“Fortitude is the guard and support of the other virtues.” – John Locke Factors, factors, factors. Everyone seems to love factors these days. Why? Because they have exhibited high returns in the past and investors love high returns. But just because factors have outperformed over long periods of time in the past doesn’t mean they […]

Volatility and Mean Reversion

“Don’t confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.” – Nassim Taleb Volatility is low. How low? Over the past month, the Dow Jones Industrials Average has traded in a range (from high to low) of 1.4%. Going back to 1970, that’s the least volatile period in history. At 2.2%, the same range for the S&P […]

The Passive Investing Bubble is Real

“It’s the greatest comeback since Lazarus.” – Sid Waddell They love passive investment strategies in 2017.  They hate them in March 2009. There is no question that the stats back up the idea that passive strategies have more often than not beaten active ones.  The reason relates primarily to fees, whereby passive vehicles tend to […]

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The Hardest Thing

  • Investing
  • Charlie Bilello

“The assets always peak with the peak in performance, because if the performance kept up, the assets would keep going up.” – Bill Miller on Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz It was early 2015 and life was good at the MainStay Marketfield Fund. So good in fact that its parent company (New York Life) was […]

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“Populist promises to reverse every tough decision are nothing but empty rhetoric, irresponsible leadership, and bad politics. They are not the solution to Ireland’s problems.” – Enda Kenny Never have I ever seen so much conviction over how the future will play out under President-elect Trump (“massive bull market ahead!”). Well, actually that’s not true. […]