It’s a battle as old as markets. Which is the better investment: gold or stocks? Gold Bugs and Equity Bulls are equally fervent about their investment of choice, often with complete disdain and contempt for the other side. The story (since the gold standard was completely abandoned in August 1971) goes something like this… 1972-1980 […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Markets
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Commodities are up, stocks are up. Commodities are down, stocks are down. This has been the story of 2016 thus far with a remarkably high correlation of .96 between the S&P 500 and the CRB Commodity Index over the past 20 trading days. But is the past few weeks a good indication of the relationship […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Markets
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Pure Insanity

“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche Can we all just step back for a moment and consider the complete insanity that is gripping markets? December ended with the first Fed interest rate hike in nearly a decade after years of talk that […]

Sentiment and the Holy Grail

Sentiment hit a number of bearish extremes last week and I tweeted out a few charts illustrating this shift in the mood of market participants. The most striking of these was the percentage of Bulls in the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) poll dropping down to 17.9%, below the extreme low it reached in […]

Why You Own Bonds

In July 2015 I wrote about an unusual occurrence in markets: the fear of bonds seemed to be higher than the fear of stocks. In the piece, I argued why this fear was irrational despite the likely low returns from a buy-and-hold bond portfolio over the coming years. Given the high valuations of U.S. equities and […]

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