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The Slope of False Hope

“Whether a stock or index is trading above or below its moving average means absolutely nothing. Focus instead on the slope of that average. That is what works in markets.” – Trading Folklore Strong opinions, strongly held. Without any basis in evidence or fact. Unfortunately, that’s how much the investment pundit industry operates, giving false […]

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.” – Buddha There is no doubt that there is a retirement crisis in America, but the fix isn’t the Dow hitting 150,000.  The fix is you. Indulge me for a moment.  I’ve presented to thousands of financial advisors and individual investors over […]

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Never Short A Dull Market?

“Never short a dull market.” – Old trading adage The stock market has become unquestionably dull in recent days. Volumes are down and volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, has plummeted. In the past 4 weeks, this index has declined by over 55%, the largest 4-week decline in history. At under 12, the VIX […]

Utilities Aren’t Just For Yield

“I have only one eye, I have a right to be blind sometimes… I really do not see the signal!” – Horatio Nelson Are you a stock investor but love bonds?  It turns out that the Utilities sector is the equity play on fixed income.  Not only do Utilities tend to have high dividend yields, […]

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Active Managers, as measured by NAAIM, have increased their exposure to U.S. equities to 96.5%. This is quite high, in the 98th percentile of historical readings dating back to July 2006. Many seem to be interpreting this development as a bearish signal, a contrary sentiment indicator. If active managers have a high exposure to equities, […]