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2017: The Year in Charts

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2017… I. The Year Volatility Died There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “the market has a tendency to move in a fashion that inflicts the most pain on the most participants.” After the election in November 2016, the most prominent market […]

Is Gold Really the Best Inflation Hedge?

“Gold is the best hedge against inflation.” – Pundit There’s not a week that goes by where we don’t hear one pundit or another promoting Gold as a valiant protector against inflation… Inflation is coming, we are told, and when it does you better own Gold. Sounds wonderful in theory, but what does the evidence […]

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Stop Searching for the Holy Grail

  • Gold
  • Charlie Bilello

In a recent post, I came to the following conclusion: “the notion that simply ‘following the trend’ in Gold will lead to vast riches is a false one.” I made this statement after analyzing a simple trend following system (going back to 1975), using the 200-day moving average as a signal of when to get […]

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Junk Bond Myths

What are high yield bonds? I don’t mean the textbook definition (corporate bonds with a credit rating below BBB), but how they actually behave in terms of risk and return. In attempting to answer this question, let’s address some common myths surrounding the asset class affectionately known as “junk bonds.” Myth #1: High Yield Bonds […]

Are Trend Following and Gold a Perfect Match?

  • Gold
  • Charlie Bilello

Market participants are often heard saying things like “you can’t trade Gold on fundamentals.” With no cash flows to discount, Gold is a different animal than stocks or bonds. It is said to swing higher and lower due to changes in investor sentiment alone. Many a trader will advise you to simply follow the trend: […]

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