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Silver Linings Playbook

Last July, I wrote the following: “Collectively, these factors [negative earnings/sales growth, widening credit spreads, flattening yield curve, weakness in cyclicals, etc.] point to an equity market that is increasingly fragile and in the past one that was about to become much more volatile. The response from market participants today: “no one cares.” Volatility is low, […]

The Market is Always Right?

“The Market is always right.” One of the most popular sayings in markets and also one of the most dangerous for investors. Why? Because the “market” can be very, very wrong – often at the worst possible time. A few examples in history when we were told: “the Market is always right.” 1) Nikkei peak […]

“We do not remember days, we remember moments.” – Cesare Pavese I’m a huge fan of LinkedIn.  I’ve used it for years to both reach out to journalists/producers, and also to network with others in the investment management business. Never did I look at it as an investment, purely because stock-picking has been proven time […]

It’s a battle as old as markets. Which is the better investment: gold or stocks? Gold Bugs and Equity Bulls are equally fervent about their investment of choice, often with complete disdain and contempt for the other side. The story (since the gold standard was completely abandoned in August 1971) goes something like this… 1972-1980 […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Markets
  • Comments Off on Investor Cage Match: Gold Bugs vs. Equity Bulls

Commodities are up, stocks are up. Commodities are down, stocks are down. This has been the story of 2016 thus far with a remarkably high correlation of .96 between the S&P 500 and the CRB Commodity Index over the past 20 trading days. But is the past few weeks a good indication of the relationship […]

  • Posted in Commodities, Markets
  • Comments Off on Do Stocks Need a Bull Market in Commodities?