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Are We in the Shortest Recession Ever?

  • Equities
  • Michael Gayed

“I’m not afraid of storms, for I’m learning how to sail my ship.” – Louisa May Alcott We’re in a recession!  Things are about to get ugly!  Hold on! No seriously.  Hold on.  For all of the rhetoric around a recession that is either coming or already happening, it’s worth taking a step back, taking […]

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“Start every day off with a smile and get it over with.” – W. C. Fields It’s good to know markets can actually move in more than one direction, isn’t it? Last year, for lack of a better way of saying it, simply sucked. The three major declines of February, October, and December were incredibly […]

  • Posted in Markets
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Lions and Tigers and Yield Curve Inversions

There are few things investors fear more than an inverted yield curve. Why? 2 reasons… The last 9 recessions in the U.S. were all preceded by an inverted curve (1-yr yield higher than 10-yr yield). Data Sources for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg. 2. Weaker stock market returns tend to follow flat/inverted curves. Note: yield curve range is […]

  • Posted in Bonds, Economy
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The Great Paradox in Markets

Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally. On December 24, the S&P 500 closed at 2,351, down 14.8% on the month and 20% from its all-time high. Notably, the NYSE McCllellan Oscillator […]

These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2018… I. All Good Things… …must come to an end. After 9 straight years of gains, the S&P 500 finished down 4.4% in 2018, its first down year since 2008. The record run from 2009-2017 thus ends in a tie with 1991-1999 for the […]