What Happens When Financials Lag?

What happens in markets when Financials are the worst performing sector? Entering 2016, nothing particularly good. We saw this in 1990, 2007, 2008, and 2011. 1990 marked the start of the 1990-91 recession. 2007 marked the start of the 2007-09 recession. 2008 was the worst year in markets since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 […]

Big Winners and Big Drawdowns

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet… -All among the largest and most revered companies in the world. -All have returned unfathomable amounts to their shareholders. -All have experienced periods of tremendous adversity with large drawdowns. When thinking about big winners in the stock market, adversity and large drawdowns probably aren’t the first words that come to mind. […]

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.” – Marcel Proust There is a behavioral tendency for human beings to oversimply.  “How is the market doing?”  “Well the Dow is up 100 points! The S&P 500 is up a percent!”  “It’s a bull market!” Oversimplified.  The “market” […]


*Beta Rotation Index, +9.71% Year to Date thru 8/12/2016, remains in offense mode (click here for why this matters) *Pension Partners Tactical Exposure Model +17.71% Year to Date thru 8/12/2016 “There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens: a time to be born and a time to die, […]

Is the Bond Bear Market Finally Here?

“Arriving at one goal is the starting point to another.” – John Dewey No one has been more wrong about the future than bond bears.  That may be about to change. For years, talking heads, analysts, and market prognosticators have been calling for higher rates.  I can’t begin to tell you how many conferences I’ve […]

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