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The Long Pause

  • Fed, Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25% – 2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time. Over the past 3 years, at every FOMC meeting where the market […]

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Bear Markets and Recessions

It’s official: the Bear Market of 2018. Like many of the previous Bears, it’s been an elevator down, with a 20% decline in just 3 months. The question many are asking: is this decline just a decline or is it signaling an oncoming recession? Looking back at history, the answer is far from clear. This […]

What Happens When Stocks Are Extremely Oversold?

  • Markets
  • Charlie Bilello

On Monday, only 1% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average. That was one of the most extreme oversold conditions in history. In the past 15 years, the only other times when stocks were this oversold: July 2002, October/November 2008, and August 2011. The short-term results following these data points […]

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No Place to Hide

In a broadly diversified portfolio, there’s usually something working in any given year. When stocks are down, bonds are typically up. When bonds are down, stocks are typically up. When stocks and bonds go down together, something else is often up (TIPS, Commodities, REITs or Gold). Well, not this year. In 2018, more than any […]

Cash is King

With 2 weeks to go in 2018, cash (short-term treasury bills) is king, outperforming all of the major global equity indices. Intermediate-term bonds (10-year treasury) are also down on the year due to the rise in interest rates. If this holds through year-end, it would be the first time since 1969 that both stocks (S&P […]