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Stocks are falling and you want to know why. You’re not alone; we all do.
Our need to explain things is innate. A random walk down Wall Street simply doesn’t suffice. We want something more tangible, something in the news, something non-random.
There are no shortage of explanations for the recent decline. Take your pick: inflation fears, rising rates, a slowdown in China, the “trade war,” tariffs, housing, etc., etc.
For passive consumers of news, any of these rationales will serve their purpose (explaining the why) and are more or less harmless.
But for investors, they can be quite harmful. Why?
Because we are emotional beings and our impulsive response to bad news is to panic and sell after the fact. We respond to good news and higher prices in a similar fashion, by panic buying after the fact (fear of missing out). Needless to say, this is not an effective long-term investment strategy.
The S&P 500 is only down 9.8% from its recent all-time high, just above the average of the 22 prior corrections since March 2009 (-9.3%). All of these corrections had fear-inducing explanations associated with them that seemed like the end of the world at the time. All were soon followed by new stock market highs.
That may or may not be the case this time around. It could be another run-of-the-mill correction or it could be the start of something bigger. We’ll only know in hindsight. Regardless of what happens next, though, reactionary buying and selling is not the answer. If you can’t stomach a 10% decline in stocks, you own way too much in equities. Lower the beta in your portfolio to meet your actual risk tolerance – the point where you can sleep at night.
The reward for being a long-term equity investor does not come without frequent bouts of risk (3-4 corrections >5% per year, on average). During the most peaceful market in history (2017), many investors forgot this lesson. The S&P 500 advanced every single month last year without a drawdown greater than 3%. They are getting a gentle reminder of equity risk in 2018, but it still pales in comparison to what we saw from 2000-02 (51% S&P 500 decline) and 2007-09 (57% S&P 500 decline).
Is there ever a reason to sell? Certainly, but it should be unemotional, in response to a clearly defined strategy or a change in goals/risk tolerance/holding period. If you sell today, when do you buy back in and what is the catalyst for doing so? If you can’t answer that question with a repeatable process, better to stick to your written investment plan (yes, every investor should have one).
While it may quench our thirst to explain every wiggle in the market, a rationale is not an edge. Knowing the “reason” why is only helpful if that reason is forward looking, but alas, it is not. Daily financial news is primarily a form of entertainment, which should play no role in how you manage your portfolio. It is their job to entertain to gain viewers; it is your job to ignore to remain invested for the long run.
Now back to your regularly scheduled program…
Charlie Bilello is the Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC, an investment advisor that manages mutual funds and separate accounts. He is the co-author of four award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. Charlie is responsible for strategy development, investment research and communicating the firm’s investment themes and portfolio positioning to clients. Prior to joining Pension Partners, he was the Managing Member of Momentum Global Advisors and previously held positions as a Credit, Equity and Hedge Fund Analyst at billion dollar alternative investment firms.
Charlie holds a J.D. and M.B.A. in Finance and Accounting from Fordham University and a B.A. in Economics from Binghamton University. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and also holds the Certified Public Accountant (CPA) certificate.
In 2017, Charlie was named the StockTwits Person of the Year. He has been named by Business Insider and MarketWatch as one of the top people to follow on Twitter and his work has been featured in Barron’s, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal.
You can follow Charlie on twitter here.
Pension Partners, LLC is a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. For more information about Pension Partners please visit: https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search for our firm name.
The information herein was obtained from various sources. Pension Partners does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. The information given is as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. Pension Partners assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it.
Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future results.
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
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